Muktdesh Desk: The national elections may be hung due to the opposing positions of the two parties on the referendum. Because Jamaat-e-Islami wants a referendum before the elections. BNP wants a national election and a referendum on the same day.
Due to the insistence of political parties on different demands, there may be misunderstandings about the referendum. Conspiracies may also be involved in this. And if the results of the referendum are against it, the entire reform process will fail, so that the situation may become conflictual. Therefore, there is scope for confusion about the referendum.
In addition, since voter turnout in the referendum is challenging, it may create controversy. Again, if the referendum is to be held earlier, it will have to be held in this November. However, the Election Commission (EC) is not at all ready to organize a fair referendum at this time. Because the EC is busy announcing the schedule of the national elections next month. As a result, organizing the referendum earlier will put the national elections in doubt for several reasons.
According to political analysts and election experts, the EC does not have the capacity to hold two national-level elections in such a short period of time. Just like in the parliamentary elections, all arrangements including polling stations, polling officers, ballot papers, ink, law enforcement agencies will be there in the referendum. Therefore, the expenses in the referendum will be close to the expenses in the national parliamentary elections. 2,800 crore taka has been allocated for the upcoming 13th national parliamentary elections. This amount can be increased if necessary. That is, it will cost about 3,000 crore. They believe that spending 6,000 crore taka on two votes in the current economic situation of the country is a big burden for the state.
Apart from that, if the votes are more than the ‘yes-no’ votes for some reason, the entire state reform may be disrupted. This may increase political conflict within the country. Many have also said that the political conflict may turn into a civil war. The July Charter may collapse.
On the other hand, due to the sudden heat in the political arena over the referendum issue, the issue of the national parliamentary elections is disappearing from the minds of voters and political activists. The Election Commission is also in an undecided state after organizing all its work.
Political scientist Professor Sabbir Ahmed does not see the logic in holding the referendum on a separate day considering the country’s political and economic context. This professor of the Department of Political Science at Dhaka University said that it would not be right to hold the referendum on a separate day. The referendum should be held on the day of the parliamentary elections. If a referendum is to be held, the voters need to be made aware of the referendum issue, but that time is no longer there. If it is held on the same day, the political parties may not be as enthusiastic as they would be to bring voters to the polls to make their candidates win.
According to analysts, if the referendum is held on a separate day, the festive atmosphere that prevails during the national elections may not be as enthusiastic. There is also doubt whether the political parties will be able to convey the content of the referendum to the voters within a month. Therefore, voter turnout could be a big challenge if the referendum is held before the parliamentary elections. And since the major political party BNP is against a referendum before the parliamentary elections, it is quite clear that their workers will lose interest. In this situation, if the referendum becomes controversial for some reason, the acceptability of the interim government may be questioned. Analysts also see the possibility of a demand for the formation of a caretaker or a new government in a different format. If such a situation arises, the environment for holding the national elections in February will be disrupted. As a result, the February parliamentary elections may be postponed. Although the government has expressed a firm stance on holding the February elections.
However, election analyst Dr. Abdul Alim believes that the referendum will be challenging whenever it is held. He told the media that the referendum will be challenging whenever it is held. If the referendum is held on a different day, a huge amount of money will be required. Moreover, if the referendum is held before the national elections, all the focus of the EC will be shifted to the referendum, which is likely to affect the national elections. He said, our general voters have almost forgotten the concept of referendum. Therefore, a massive campaign is needed among voters about the content of the referendum. There is only one month. It is quite difficult to awaken the issue of referendum among voters during this period.
Analysts also believe that holding two national elections in such a short period of time could be a huge burden for the state. According to them, spending 6,000 crore taka just for voting in a developing country like Bangladesh is excessive. The impact of which will be felt on the next government. Many also believe that there could be a huge setback to the country’s economy.
In this regard, former Additional Secretary of the Election Commission (EC) Jasmine Tully told the media that if two national elections are held in a row, the ‘election budget’ will have to be doubled. If the budget for the national elections is increased by 10-20 percent, it will be possible to hold a referendum. Is it possible to meet such a huge cost just for elections in a country like our country?
Jasmine Tully said that just like the national parliamentary elections, all the centers will be there for the referendum, all the polling officers will have to be deployed, ballots will have to be printed, meaning all the election equipment will be needed. The same expenses will be required for the referendum as for the national elections. If the referendum were to be held in November, the election materials would have to be purchased. Does the EC have that time now, she questioned.
According to experts, if for some reason a referendum is announced in November, the political situation in the country could become conflictual, which would lead the country to extreme instability. The economy is already stagnant in the country. If new instability arises in such a situation,
